Farligt antagande att Kinas elit skulle se ett USA på dekis

Farligt antagande att Kinas elit skulle se ett USA på dekis

Många artiklar i västerländsk media gör gällande att det skulle finnas en konsensus i Kinas politiska elit om att USA befinner sig i tillstånd av ihållande tillbakagång, skriver två Kinaexperter i The Diplomat. Skribenterna menar att det antagandet både är fel – och farligt. De tar upp en rad exempel från kinesiskspråkiga artiklar som visar på motsatsen. Denna missuppfattning kan leda till felberäkningar från USA:s sida och exempelvis missa möjligheter att deeskalera spänningar mellan länderna. It is inaccurate – and dangerous – to assume that Chinese policy elites broadly perceive the U.S. to be in perpetual decline. By Daniel Fu and Arran Hope 9 October, 2023 Western writing on China is rife with commentary and analysis suggesting that there is an established consensus among Chinese policy elites and academics that the United States is in a state of perpetual decline. This analysis accurately diagnoses increasing confidence in China about Beijing’s material capabilities and technological prowess, and often passes for conventional wisdom. However, it ignores several recently published Chinese-language articles and commentaries that suggest there is far from a uniform consensus in Beijing about U.S. decline. Many prominent Chinese elites have detailed how the United States continues to occupy a leading position in the international system, how its economic capabilities and influence have not waned and remain robust, and how it still holds sizable advantages in areas related to science and technology. An awareness of the diversity of views among those who help shape the discourse in Beijing’s policymaking circles allows for a more accurate appraisal of China’s approach to strategic competition. This in turn can help Washington craft smarter policy towards its principal strategic rival. Party rhetoric from Beijing regularly trumpets China’s rise as inevitable and part of “changes not seen for a century.” This triumphalism has been largely coterminous with Xi Jinping’s time in office, though its origins extend back to the global financial crisis of 2008, when many Chinese elites began to express skepticism about U.S. leadership and hegemony. This hubris was then amplified during the Trump administration and into the pandemic, as rifts between the United States and its allies became more apparent and as Washington’s capacity to protect its citizens at home was called into question. Prominent Chinese elites have sought more recently to dispel this common narrative. The political scientist Zheng Yongnian emphasized in 2022 that while “China has risen rapidly, the West has not fallen; it has just risen a little slower. Many people have not understood this point.” Sun Zhe, the director of the Center for U.S.-China Relations and professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University, has similarly warned that “discussion underestimating the U.S. and thinking that the importance of the U.S. has declined has restricted China’s objective judgment of the U.S. and the healthy development of U.S.-China relations.” Zhao Kejin, an associate professor of International Studies at Tsinghua University, wrote that “many people think the United States is in decline now, but I personally think the United States has not declined.” He drew attention to issues endemic within U.S. politics, but chalked these up to various kinds of “confusion” in U.S. democracy and did not suggest that these are indicative of decline relative to China. Even Jin Canrong, the associate dean of the School of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing whose views on U.S. decline are discussed extensively in Rush Doshi’s book “The Long Game,” stated in 2023 that the balance of power between the United States and China has remained unchanged, let alone the “advantage of power” enjoyed by the U.S. in the international system. The notion that the U.S. economy is in decline or that Washington’s economic influence abroad is diminishing has also received pushback. Wang Jisi, president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, argued in 2022 that he has “doubts about assertions regarding the economic decline of the United States.” He noted that the U.S. economy has consistently accounted for “25-30 percent of world GDP” and that even though it has “occasionally slipped out of this range, it always recovers within a short period of time.” He concluded that “it is illogical to think that the U.S. will decline in the short-term,” pointing to enduring advantages the U.S. possesses in its natural resources, demographic trends, and geography. Other experts such as Lu Feng, chair professor of economics at Peking University, have emphasized that the rate of China’s “catch-up” vis-a-vis the United States is “slowing down.” Lu pointed out that between 2011 and 2021, China’s “catch-up rate” vis-a-vis the U.S. slowed by 55 percent. Between 2017 and 2021, China’s GDP only grew an aggregate total of 8.5 percent against the United States while China’s annual “catch-up rate” in that period averaged only 1.7 percent per year. The decline of U.S. manufacturing over the past two decades is often taken as an indicator of American decline by observers on both sides of the Pacific. However, Ma Xue, an associate researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a government-connected think tank, has even countered this argument. In 2023, she asserted that the manufacturing industry in the U.S. has never been in “true decline,” and emphasized that the scale of U.S. manufacturing has grown rapidly in the last 40 years in absolute terms and in terms of productivity, maintaining its “competitive edge.” Claims that China is ahead in the bilateral competition over high-tech innovation and research have also been met with some skepticism by Chinese elites. Wu Guosheng, professor and chair of the Department of the History of Science at Tsinghua University, has asserted that the “gap between the U.S. and China in science and technology is still relatively large” and that only by “reversing our fundamental views on science, basic research, and innovative culture, can we truly narrow the gap.” Wu lamented what he sees as China’s “rigid, old-fashioned” teachers and a restrictive “scientific culture,” which he believes obstructs efforts to foster a culture of true innovation akin to that of the United States. Ren Zhengfei, founder of the telecoms giant Huawei, has expressed a similar sentiment. During a speech delivered at Shanghai Jiaotong University in 2023, he argued that “American politicians may come and go, but the United States’ innovative soil has lasted for hundreds of years and will not degrade because of them.” Ren added that “the soft power of the United States in science and education is something we cannot achieve in a few decades.” The scientist Shi Yigong, the former dean of Tsinghua University’s School of Life Sciences, asserted in 2023 that “American science is much more powerful than you can imagine” and emphasized that “it is not only not in decline, but it will also lead world development in coming decades.” He stated that “according to the data, the U.S. has continued nurturing leading talent” and continues to occupy a “leading position in the world in innovation and various lines of scientific research, regardless of whether it is military or aerospace technology or any other area.” Wang Wen, the executive dean of the Chaoyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, echoed Wu, Ren, and Shi, writing around the same time that while China may ultimately surpass the United States, it is necessary for China to “objectively face the basic fact that the U.S. is not declining and will not decline.” He argued that the West still holds “obvious advantages” in that Washington maintains “an absolute leading position in finance, science and technology, military, and education.” It is inaccurate and dangerous to assume that Chinese policy elites broadly perceive the U.S. to be in perpetual decline. This is not to ignore the significant contingent of U.S. declinists in academic and policy positions throughout China’s network of universities and think tanks. It may be the case that their views represent the majority of the contemporary Chinese academy. It is a mistake, however, to assume that there is a monolithic view in Beijing on Washington’s stature, position, and influence in the world. Debate in elite Chinese policy circles on the current stature and future of the United States is as contested as its inverse in the West. Assuming that there are uniform views of U.S. decline in Beijing contributes to threat inflation, by interpreting China as being convinced that it is on a trajectory, buoyed by a historical narrative, toward a successful power transition. This misperception could also lead to miscalculations on the U.S. side. As certain narratives in Washington’s strategic discourse calcify into conventional wisdom, they can go uninterrogated, and if policymakers stop critically assessing these basic assumptions, they might fail to observe significant shifts in trends that could otherwise be leveraged to deescalate tensions. The extent to which discourse has shifted in recent years, from discussion oriented around China’s ascendancy to suggestions now that China is “peaking,” is indicative of how rapidly geopolitical conditions can change. Those changes require an equally flexible ability to reevaluate some conventional views when necessary. © 2023 The Diplomat. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency.

Minst 35 döda i Kina – bil körde in i folkmassa

Minst 35 döda i Kina – bil körde in i folkmassa

Händelsen inträffade vid en sportarena vid åttatiden på måndagskvällen. Enligt flera medier ska bilen ha kört in i en folkmassa som utförde någon form av träningsaktivitet på arenan. – Den körde runt och runt och människor skadades på alla delar av löpbanan – öst, syd, väst och nord, säger ett annat vittne till det kinesiska nyhetsmagasinet Caixin. Bilder från platsen visade flera personer liggandes livlösa på marken efter att bilen kört runt. Många av de som skadats eller dödats är äldre, men det finns även barn bland offren. ”Extremt illvillig natur” Föraren, en man i 62-årsåldern, greps när han försökte fly platsen. Motivet bakom händelsen är ännu inte känt, men enligt ett utlåtande från den kinesiska polisen ska mannen ha varit missnöjd med en skilsmässouppgörelse. ”Poliser fann honom när han skadade sig själv med en kniv i bilen. De stoppade honom och körde honom till sjukhus för vård. På grund av allvarliga skador i nacken är han medvetslös och har ännu inte kunnat höras ”, skriver polisen i ett utlåtande. Den kinesiske presidenten Xi Jinping manar till största möjliga ansträngningar för att vårda de skadade. Han har också krävt att gärningsmannen ska straffas hårt, och beskriver brottet som en ”extremt illvillig natur”, enligt det statliga tv-bolaget CCTV. Censureras På tisdagen har sökningar i sociala medier om händelsen censurerats kraftigt och kinesiska mediers artiklar om händelser som publicerats på måndagskvällen har tagits bort. Hundratals invånare samlas regelbundet vid sportarenan i Zhuhai för att friidrotta, spela fotboll och umgås. Arenan har meddelat att den kommer att hålla stängt tills vidare.

Därför reste Orban till Georgien – trots anklagelser om valfusk

Därför reste Orban till Georgien – trots anklagelser om valfusk

I lördags gick Georgien till val i vad som benämnts som ett ödesval. Initialt såg det positivt ut för oppositionen, men när 99 procent av rösterna var räknade hade regeringspartiet Georgisk dröm fått över 50 procent av rösterna. En rysk påverkansoperation, menade den georgiska oppositionella presidenten Salome Zourabichvili som manade till massiva protester i Tbilisi. Även från svenskt håll kritiserades valet. – Vi har inte fått de slutliga rapporterna men allting talar för att det har skett många oegentligheter, att det är ett val som inte är pålitligt, att det har skett rent fusk på olika sätt, säger statsminister Ulf Kristersson till TT. Experten förutsåg Orbáns drag Efter valet fyllde demonstranter gatorna i Tbilisi. Oppositionella har vädjat om stöd från det internationella samfundet och EU och demonstranter fyllde gatorna i Tbilisi. Samtidigt anlände Viktor Orbán, premiärministern i Ungern som innehar ordförandeskapet i EU, till huvudstaden. Orbán gratulerade regeringen och beskrev valet som fritt och demokratiskt. Flera organisationer, bland annat OSSE, rapporterar att det förekommit valfusk. En som förutsåg Orbáns agerande redan i våras, i samband med att den ”utländska agent-lagen” klubbades igenom, är Daniel Hegedüs, regionalchef för Centraleuropa på tankesmedjan German Marshall Fund. I en artikel i EUobserver skrev han redan i maj om hur Ungern kunde komma att utnyttja det roterande ordförandeskapet för att legitimera valet för den georgiska regeringen – trots ouppklarade frågor om valfusk. – De skapar nära band till de som utmanar EU och väst. Länder som Ryssland och Kina, men även till mindre länder som Azerbaijan och i detta fallet Georgien, säger Daniel Hegedüs till TV4 Nyheterna. Kan komma att stoppa sanktioner De ungerska relationerna till de länder som vågar utmana EU kan sedan användas som en påtryckningsmetod mot EU, menar Daniel Hegedüs. Liknande metoder har använts i förhållande till Ukraina. – Jag tror vi kan förvänta oss att de kommer gå så långt att EU troligtvis inte kommer kunna införa sanktioner mot företrädare för Georgisk dröm, likt USA tidigare infört. Man kan förvänta sig att Ungern kommer motsätta sig sådana försök, säger Hegedüs. Ungern, som nu innehar ordförandeskapet, försöker främst utnyttja sin roll på två sätt, enligt Hegedüs. I början av ordförandeskapet försökte de öka sitt strategiska manöverutrymme och stärka sin utrikespolitiska självständighet. Då besökte Orbán bland annat Putin i Moskva och Xi Jinping i Peking. – Det andra är att störa EU:s utrikes- och institutionella politik. Det främjar den ungerska regimen men även ryska intressen, det är tydligt även i det georgiska valet, säger Hegedüs. Värderingsbaserad allians De två regeringspartierna Georgisk dröm och ungerska Fidesz har de senaste åren kommit allt närmare varandra. Georgiens premiärminister, Irakli Kobakhidze, beskrev besöket som ett ”bevis på den nära vänskapen mellan våra länder, byggd på delade värderingar”. – En allians har vuxit fram, främst baserad på gemensamma illiberala värderingar och intressen kopplade till inhemsk auktoritär utveckling säger Hegedüs. När EU valde att stoppa den georgiska processen för att ansluta sig till unionen i samband med att den ”utländska agent-lagen” klubbades igenom, fortsatte Ungern att stötta Georgien och dess beslut. – Det är uppenbart att de har en mycket nära relation, en som gör att premiärminister Orbán inte tvekar att gå i konflikt med EU, säger Hegedüs.

Elon Musk och Putin i hemliga samtal – ska ha pågått i flera år

Elon Musk och Putin i hemliga samtal – ska ha pågått i flera år

Samtalen mellan Musk och Putin, som varit igång sedan slutet av 2022, ska ha handlat om både personliga ämnen, affärer och geopolitiska spänningar, skriver The Wall Street Journal. Att miljardären och den ryska presidenten har samtalat flera gånger är något som flera före detta och nuvarande amerikanska, ryska och europeiska tjänstemän uppger för tidningen. Elon Musk är grundare av SpaceX som driver tjänsten Starlink. Företaget är Nasas och Pentagons primära raketuppskjutare. Det gör att Musk har viss tillgång till hemligstämplad information, och har starka band till amerikanska militären. Enligt två av källorna ska Putin ha bett Musk att inte aktivera sin Starlink-satellitinternettjänst över Taiwan, vilket var en tjänst till Kinas ledare Xi Jinping. Kreml: Har bara hänt en gång Elon Musk har inte kommenterat uppgifterna. Dmitry Peskov, talesperson för Kreml, bekräftar inte att det har skett några regelbundna samtal med Musk, men säger att ett samtal ägt rum en gång och då över telefon. Då ska Musk och Putin ha diskuterat ”rymden och nuvarande och framtida teknik”. Elon Musk sa i oktober 2022 att han haft ett samtal med Putin en gång i april 2021, ett samtal som ska ha handlat om rymden. ”De älskar det inte” Enligt källorna är samtalen mellan ryska presidenten och miljardären en väl bevarad hemlighet i den amerikanska regeringen. Flera som tidningen har pratat med visste inte om kontakten. En person som tidningen pratar med menar att det uppstår ett dilemma eftersom man förlitar sig på Musks rymdraketer. Samtidigt finns inga larm om säkerhetsintrång. – De älskar det inte, säger personen om var regeringen anser om kontakterna mellan Musk och Putin.

Utspelet: "Han vet att jag är galen"

Utspelet: "Han vet att jag är galen"

Det är extremt jämnt inför presidentvalet i USA som avgörs i början av november. Siffrorna varierar dag för dag. Ibland leder Republikanernas kandidat Donald Trump och ibland leder Demokraternas kandidat Kamala Harris. Om det skulle bli expresidenten Donald Trump som vinner valet så är han säker på en sak. Nämligen att Kina inte skulle våga provocera honom då ”Xi Jinping vet att jag är galen”, säger han i en intervju med The Wall Street Journal. – Jag hade en väldigt stark relation med honom. Han var faktiskt en riktigt god, jag vill inte säga vän, jag vill inte säga något dumt, men vi kom väldigt bra överens, säger Trump. Hotar med höga tullar I intervjun säger han också att han skulle införa tullar på mellan 150 och 200 procent mot Kina om de inför en blockad mot Taiwan. Trump får också frågan om amerikanska soldater skulle kunna sättas in i samband med det. – Jag skulle inte behöva det, eftersom han (Xi Jinping reds. anm.) respekterar mig och vet att jag är galen, säger han. Samtalen med Putin Donald Trump säger också att han och Vladimir Putin hade flera samtal under hans tid i Vita Huset och att han kom bra överens med den ryske presidenten. – Jag sa: ”Vladimir, om du ger dig på Ukraina kommer jag slå till mot dig så hårt att du inte kommer fatta vad som hände. Jag kommer slå till mot dig mitt i Moskva. Vi är vänner, jag vill inte göra det, men jag har inget alternativ”, säger han i intervjun.

Xi Jinping på YouTube

The rise of Xi Jinping, explained

How Xi Jinping became China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong Help keep Vox free for everybody: ...

Vox på YouTube

Xi Jinping confronts Justin Trudeau at G20 over 'leaked' conversation details

China's president, Xi Jinping. confronted the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, at the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, ...

Guardian News på YouTube

History of Xi Jinping

Join my community at http://johncoogan.com (enter your email) SOURCES: This would have been impossible without this ...

John Coogan på YouTube

The world of China’s President Xi Jinping | DW Documentary

President Xi Jinping wants to establish the People's Republic of China as the leading world power of tomorrow. Never before has ...

DW Documentary på YouTube

How Xi Jinping Became China’s Leader for Life

Xi Jinping secured a historic third term as head of the Chinese Communist Party. Amid a punishing zero-Covid strategy, ...

VICE News på YouTube

Xi Jinping i poddar

Redder than red

Xi Jinping is born into the top rung of China's elite. But his family is torn apart while he is still a child. The Economist's Sue-Lin Wong finds out why Xi kept faith in the Communist revolution.Subscribe to The Economist with the best offer at economist.com/chinapod.

Hide and bide

As a modest provincial official in Fujian, Xi Jinping is outshone by his celebrity wife, while colleagues are caught up in a lurid corruption scandal. How does Xi survive? Subscribe to The Economist with the best offer at economist.com/chinapod.

Biden and Xi mend ties

A recent visit to the US by China’s president Xi Jinping has raised hopes of a bilateral rapprochement. But how stable is this more positive relationship and can a conflict over Taiwan be averted? Gideon discusses these questions with Washington-based China experts Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette. Clip: CNBCFree links to read more on this topic:America and a crumbling global orderMoody’s cuts China’s credit outlook to negativeUS, UK and Australia move to track ‘emerging threats’ in spaceEU must stand up for Taiwan at China summitSubscribe to The Rachman Review wherever you get your podcasts - please listen, rate and subscribe.Presented by Gideon Rachman. Produced by Fiona Symon. Sound design is by Breen TurnerRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Two Superpowers Walk Into a Garden

One of the most highly anticipated diplomatic events of the year took place this week in a mansion outside San Francisco. President Biden and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, met to repair their countries’ relations, which had sunk to one of their lowest points in decades.Edward Wong, a diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times, discusses the effort to bring the relationship back from the brink.Guest: Edward Wong, a diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: Both American and Chinese accounts of the meeting indicated scant progress on the issues that have pushed the two nations to the edge of conflict.China’s depiction of Xi Jinping’s U.S. visit reflected his sometimes-contradictory priorities: to project both strength and a willingness to engage with Washington.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

Introducing The Prince

Xi Jinping is the most powerful person in the world. But the real story of China’s leader remains a mystery. The Economist’s Sue-Lin Wong finds out how he rose to the top in a new podcast series launching on September 28th. For more China coverage, subscribe to The Economist and find a special offer at economist.com/chinapod.

January 3rd, 2024: Hamas Hit, Xi’s Rare Reveal, & Gay Gone

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We uncover the details of the Israeli military's strategic operation that neutralized a key Hamas figure, escalating tensions in the Middle East. We discuss President Xi Jinping's startling admission about China's economic struggles in his New Year's Eve speech, a first in his tenure. We recount the shocking assault on South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and his narrow escape from what could have been a fatal incident. Our coverage extends to America's southern border, where December saw an unprecedented surge in illegal migrant encounters, raising alarms on national security. And we conclude with the unfolding story of Harvard University President Claudine Gay, who resigns amid a scandal.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: PDB@TheFirstTV.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chairman Mao Zedong vs. President Xi Jinping

The hosts unravel the lives and legacies of two Chinese dictators; Chairman Mao Zedong and current President of China Xi Jinping. They discuss Mao's involvement in the creation of the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese civil war fighting the Nationalists, the world war fighting the Japanese, his brutality in taking control of China, the millions of deaths in his Great Leap Forward and the hysteria and horror of the Mao's Cultural Revolution. They also discuss President Xi Jinping's suffering under Mao, his ascension to the top of the CCP, the genocide of the Uyghur people, the attempted cover up of the coronavirus outbreak, his crackdown on Hong Kong and future plans for Taiwan. These two dictators battle it out in Round 19 of the knock-out tournament to determine the single greatest dictator of all time. One of these two dictators will be eliminated from the tournament and the other will remain in contention to be crowned history's biggest dictator.

Xi Jinping: The man behind the myth

This August, we're revisiting some of our favourite episodes from the past year.Xi Jinping is consolidating his position as the all-powerful president of China. But who is the man at the top of the sharpest pyramid in the world of politics?This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today and get one month free at: thetimes.co.uk/storiesofourtimes.Host: David Aaronovitch.Guest: Michael Sheridan, former foreign correspondent for The Sunday Times and author of The Gate to China: A New History of the People's Republic & Hong Kong.Clips: ABC, South China Morning Post, No Comment TV, BBC, CCTV Video News Agency, Periscope Film, Al Jazeera, CBS, VICE News. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Xi Jinping-Biden meeting to focus on US election concerns

Xi Jinping-Biden meeting to focus on US election concerns

How Xi Jinping did it

Just over a decade ago, President Xi Jinping was a virtual unknown. Few would say that now. In ten years, he’s reworked the Chinese Communist party, the military and the government so that he’s firmly in control. He’s also vanquished all of his obvious rivals. And now, he’s about to extend his time in office. Some say Xi might stay in the top job indefinitely. So how did Xi Jinping do it? Celia Hatton, the BBC’s Asia Pacific Editor, speaks to fellow China watchers to find out.Producer: Rob Walker Editor: Clare Fordham Researcher: Ben Cooper Studio Manager: James Beard Production Coordinators: Maria Ogundele and Helena Warwick-CrossWith special thanks to Kerry Allen.(Photo: Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the art performance celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party of China in 2021. Credit: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Cut The Clutter : Understanding Xi Jinping’s defence & military-industry ‘purge’, corruption & ‘self-revolution’

Chinese President Xi Jinping has been carrying out a purge within the corridors of power as part of his “crackdown” on the “cancer of corruption”. The latest officials netted in this drive, now in its second decade, include nine top generals and three leaders of state-owned military enterprises. In episoe 1377 of #CutTheClutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta discusses Xi’s purge, what’s driving it, and how it plays into his larger strategic agenda. https://www.youtube.com/@CoorgWildernessResort More here - https://www.coorgwildernessresort.in