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Ep. 199 - Top 10 economic predictions for 2024

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024. Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year.  Featured expert: Ken Wattret, Global economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Read our full 2024 themes report: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/1123/2024-disjointed-world.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015 Read more about our top 10 economic predictions: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015  

Ep. 198 - A disjointed world: Themes for 2024

The global environment has still not settled onto a clear pathway toward a new stability. As we enter 2024 in this disjointed world, we confront risks posed by potential volatility across the economic and political spheres. We also see potential opportunities arising from the new reality of greatly segmented global relationships.  In this episode, we discuss five overlapping themes as key for 2024: economic fault lines, geopolitical reordering, supply chain resilience, logistics rewired, and resource security. All influence one another, and none will develop in isolation.  Featured experts: Natznet Tesfay, head of Insights & Analysis, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/tesfay-natznet.html Ken Wattret, head of economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html Eric Johnson, senior technology editor, Journal of Commerce, S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/johnson-eric.html Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Ep. 194 - PMI Insights: A look at the Americas

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team discusses key 2023 themes through the lens of economies in the Americas.   The economists see quite a subdued picture in Canada from their latest survey results. Firms are concerned about high interest rates and how they may squeeze clients' budgets. The newly launched PMI for the Canadian service sector, which covers private sector services accounting for about half of the country's GDP, offers additional insights into business activity, new orders, employment and more.   In the US, sentiment has picked up from the previous survey, and that confidence is flowing into expectations around employment and investment. Companies remain wary that inflation could rise again.   In Brazil, the central bank is cutting rates after aggressively raising them in 2022 to combat inflation. The economy has managed to grow throughout 2023, with services doing most of the heavy lifting.   Discover more PMI insights here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi.html Featured experts: Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html   Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html   Pollyanna De Lima, Associate Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/de-lima-pollyanna.html   Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Ep. 197 - Swings in US interest rates

Financial conditions in the US have tightened significantly of late, with a rapid jump in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, a material rise in the dollar, slowing in bank lending and continued weakness in equities. This argues for a slowing in growth of demand and GDP in coming quarters. In this episode of the Economics & Country Risk podcast, a member of our US economics team discusses the sharp fluctuations in interest rates over the last month or two. What’s behind the backup in long-term yields, and what does it imply for Fed policy? Featured expert: Michael Konidaris, associate director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/konidaris-michael.html Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Ep. 195 - Water stress and the 2024 sustainability outlook

Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essential resource. The El Niño climate pattern is forecast to significantly impact the world in 2024. Water-related stress, however, will be an issue for many years to come in many parts of the world. How will governments and businesses respond to water stress? And which industries are most likely to be affected?  Access the 2024 Big Picture report here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/the-big-picture-industry-outlook Featured S&P Global Market Intelligence experts: Veronica Retamales Burford, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk Will Farmer, Senior Research Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts:  https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/    

Ep. 193 - Monetary policy moves in Central Europe and Central Asia

Inflation was the economic bogeyman of 2022. Some Central European central banks believe they’ve banished the bogeyman and are cutting or preparing to cut interest rates. The story in neighboring Russia and Turkey is different, with central banks there making defensive moves to shore up the countries’ currencies. What is driving inflation trends in these economies? And where are rates there heading? Featured experts:  Andy Birch, associate director, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/birch-andrew.html   Lilit Gevorgyan, associate director, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence| https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/gevorgyan-lilit.html   Shuchita Shukla, senior economist, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/shukla-shuchita.html

Ep. 192 - Commercial and residential construction in Europe

We share our outlook for commercial and residential construction in Europe. We expect nonresidential structure spending to decline across the region. The speed and intensity of the correction in the eurozone housing market will vary by country.  What is driving our outlook in these markets? What headwinds are these markets facing, and when are they likely to ease?  Featured experts: Amandeep Bahra, senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence Anja Heimann, senior Europe economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/heimann-anja.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/  

Ep. 187 - Russia's economy today

Russia's economy seemed to show remarkable resilience in the face of waves of sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine. But recently the bank of Russia had to take steps to shore up a weakening ruble. Are the sanctions finally biting? And how much of a bite would it take to get Russia to the negotiating table? We discuss what has supported Russia's economy during wartime, shifts in trade routes, currency effects, and our near-term outlook. Featured expert: Lilit Gevorgyan, Associate Director, Europe and CIS Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence  https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/gevorgyan-lilit.html   Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Ep. 190 - Political change in South and Southeast Asia

Political change is coming to South and Southeast Asia. Elections have concluded this year in the Maldives and Thailand, and are scheduled to take place in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in the next year. With these elections comes the potential for sweeping policy changes and government instability.    What forces will shape this new political order? Where are we likely to see the greatest shift in policy direction? And how will these new governments interact with their neighbors and the wider world?    Featured experts: Aries Poon, Head of Asia Pacific Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1446418/aries-poon   Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kumar-deepa.html   Hannah Cotillon, Senior South Asia Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cotillon-hannah.html   Anton Alifandi, Lead ASEAN Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/alifandi-anton.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/   Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/  

South African politics: 10 minutes with an expert

This episode will provide you with a deep dive into the political governance and policy changes expected in South Africa at the start of 2023, following a significant elective conference for the country's ruling ANC party. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

Ep. 188 - Supply chain outlook for Q4 2023

The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize. But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and labor action also threaten supply chain stability.  What is driving the return to normal in supply chains? What strategies are companies exploring to build resilience? Featured expert: Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html  

PMI Insights: Divergent trends in goods and services

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team compiles data for more than 40 economies around the world. In this episode, the economists explore the divergence in the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors in countries including Australia and Greece. They zero in on how this is showing up in labor markets, looking at employment growth and wages.  Learn more about our Purchasing Managers' Index here: http://ow.ly/VjM050OsqWf Featured speakers: Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html   Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html   Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/pan-jingyi.html    

Ep. 191 - Global construction outlook update

In this episode, we share an excerpt from our recent webinar exploring our latest global construction outlook. Our expert discusses the global economic drivers of construction markets, highlight changes in our forecast, and pinpoint areas of strength and weakness.  Featured expert: Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Critical minerals and geopolitical risks

Countries around the world are developing strategies around minerals that they consider critical to their economies and their national security, such as copper and lithium. We discuss these strategies and their potential geopolitical impacts with our experts: Carla Selman, head of Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/selman-carla.html Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/acheampong-theo.html Hannah Cotillon, Senior Analyst, Asia-Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cotillon-hannah.html

Ep. 189 - A consumer carol: Outlook for US holiday spending

Our forecast for US holiday sales is looking "delightfully average," according to Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumer spending has shown resilience to tightening financial conditions, thanks to a strong labor market and rising wages.   Banks, meanwhile, are eyeing deposit levels and delinquencies as interest rates have crept higher and inflation persists. Delinquencies are rising — but from historically low rates, said Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence and host of the Street Talk podcast.   Listen to Michael and Nathan talk about how the outlook for US holiday spending is likely to impact banks, retailers, the economy, and the Fed's next move.   Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/    Featured experts:   Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence   Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research, S&P Global Market Intelligence  

Supply chain outlook: Right place, right time

Supply chains are almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventories and seasonality. Yet there are plenty of uncertainties in both government policy and physical risk heading into the second half of 2023.  In this episode, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence shares insights from his recent Q3 outlook report.  Featured speaker:  Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html Sign up for the complimentary Supply Chain Essentials newsletter here: https://ow.ly/YNBI50Phl0z

South African economy: 10 minutes with an economist

This episode will provide you with a deep dive into the uncertainty facing South Africa's economy in 2023. Our expert shares the top macroeconomic forecasts for the global economy as well as the South African economy for the coming year. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html

Ep. 185 - PMI Insights: Extreme weather impact

2023 has delivered some extreme weather, from extreme heat in Southern Europe to a dry spell that affected crop yields in Southeast Asia and Australia, often with tragic human consequences.     Extreme weather events like droughts and floods also present risks to economies and supply chains. For example, the level of the Rhine River in Europe can impact the transportation of a range of raw materials, rippling through to industrial performance.   Our Purchasing Managers' Index and other survey data can pick up this impact, helping to assess behavioral changes as nations transition to greener and more efficient forms of energy. Our PMI economists share the signals they see in the data and how they provide insights into over 40 countries and regions around the world.   Featured experts:    Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html   Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html   Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-phil.html   Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/