Europaräntorna steg på torsdagen i spåren på högre USA-räntor under natten och relativt ”icke-mjuka” signaler från ECB. Euron handlades samtidigt något högre mot dollarn jämfört med på onsdagseftermiddagen.
Europaräntorna steg på torsdagen i spåren på högre USA-räntor under natten och relativt ”icke-mjuka” signaler från ECB. Euron handlades samtidigt något högre mot dollarn jämfört med på onsdagseftermiddagen.
ECB-rådsledamoten Francois Villeroy de Galhau, som också är centralbankschef i Frankrike, räknar med att inflationen i landet kommer att förbli måttlig, och han räknar med att ECB kan fortsätta att sänka styrräntan.
Det blåser motvind för europeisk ekonomi. Senaste två åren har BNP knappast vuxit. Inflationen må ha fallit ner mot målet på två procent och med start i sommar inledde ECB sin räntesänkningscykel. Konjunkturuppgången låter dock vänta på sig. Hushållen börjar visserligen se mindre dystert på tillvaron men signalerna från tillverkningsindustrin är däremot mer negativa.
ECB sänker räntan men skickar inga signaler om framtiden. Mycket talar ändå för att det blir sänkningar vid varje penningpolitiskt möte den närmaste tiden. Det skulle i så falla göra livet lite lättare för Riksbanken.
ECB håller alla dörrar öppna men marknaden börjar luta åt att det blir en sänkning även i oktober. Tisdagens inflationssiffra kan mycket väl bli avgörande. Så borde det inte vara. Den europeiska centralbanken löper stor risk att hamna på efterkälken.
Efter den OS-relaterade studsen i augusti sjönk inköpschefsindex för euroområdet i september till en nivå som är den lägsta sedan januari och tyder på krympande ekonomi. Ljuspunkten är att pristrycket också sjunker snabbt. Pressen ökar på hökarna i ECB.
Inflationen har kommit ner. Centralbankerna kan rikta blicken mot arbetslösheten och den reala ekonomin. Styrräntorna kommer att sjunka, och Riksbanken rör sig lite snabbare än ECB. Rörligt blir åter förstavalet för bolånetagaren. ✔ Styrräntorna kommer falla mer än vad centralbankerna indikerar ✔ Räntekänsliga hushåll driver tillväxten nästa år ✔ Sista chansen att binda boräntan: ”Fönstret stängs snabbt”
ECB-rådsledamoten Robert Holzmann, som var den ende som reserverade sig mot räntesänkningen i juni, tror nu på ytterligare räntesänkningar före årsskiftet, även efter att ECB sänkte styrräntan en andra gång på torsdagen. Det säger han i en intervju med Financial Times.
ECB förväntar sig att den ekonomiska aktiviteten i eurozonen kommer att ta fart över tid. Arbetsmarknaden förblir motståndskraftig. Det sade ECB-chefen Christine Lagarde vid torsdagens presskonferens.
Veckan bjuder med största sannolikhet på en räntesänkning från ECB och ett svenskt inflationsutfall en bra bit under målet. Marknadsaktörerna börjar nu vädra en dubbelsänkning från Riksbanken vid något av höstens tre återstående räntemöten.
ECB President Christine Lagarde explains the Governing Council's monetary policy decisions and will answer questions from ...
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the latest interest-rate decision. Watch it ...
The direction of European Central Bank borrowing costs is clear but the pace at which they'll be lowered is still to be decided, ...
The European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters following the Governing Council's monetary policy ...
The European Central Bank is set to lower interest rates for a second straight meeting, quickening the speed of cutting after data ...
The ECB has raised interest rates ten times in two years but the Euro is not getting stronger, it is getting weaker. What does this tell us about the European economy and inconsistency at the heart of European policy making. We head to Frankfurt and put the ECB in the dock. I rest my case! Join the gang! https://plus.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
UBS has reported the biggest-ever quarterly profit for a bank, eurozone core inflation has edged down, and Switzerland has proposed sweeping measures to clamp down on money laundering. Mentioned in this podcast:UBS breaks record with $29bn profit after Credit Suisse deal‘Deal of the century’ — How UBS’s rescue of Credit Suisse proved a boonEurozone core inflation edges down ahead of crunch ECB decisionSwitzerland unveils money laundering clampdownFT Weekend festival promo code: FTPodcastThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Monique Mulima, Monica Lopez, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
We're delighted today to be joined by world cup winning all rounder Liam Plunkett all the way from the USA. He does not hold back at all as he lets rip on; the ECB after they dropped him a week after winning the World Cup, the failure of 'The Hundred', why he thinks many more England stars will turn their back on domestic cricket for the Major League Tournament he's overseeing in the USA and why England maybe in for a rude awakening tomorrow against the Aussies. He also shares some hilarious stories from his career, from playing with KP way back in 2005 in Pakistan, to partying with Paul Collingwood, Knocking out an Aussie in a bar in Tasmania on the 2007 Ashes Tour, why Stoke's arrest changed the way the England team celebrated, Thai Massages, Monty Panesar's short temper and much much more...... ----- We need you all to sort out your fucking bushes lads (and ladies) - that's why we're giving you 20% off everything and free delivery on any Manscaped products! - Use The Code - RIGBIZ20 - https://uk.manscaped.com/ NOW SUMMER IS FINALLY HERE - CLAIM YOUR 8 FREE BEERS & 2 SNACKS NOW FROM BEER 52 - ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS PAY THE £5.95 POSTAGE - www.beer52.com/RIGBIZ
In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:34), the highlights will be CPI, retail sales, and industrial production data, along with the final FOMC meeting of the year. In Europe (05:58), we have industrial production data and the ECB and BOE meetings. Then it’s the latest from Asia (10:32), with China monthly activity data, the Japan Tankan report, India industrial production and CPI data and central bank meetings in Taiwan and the Philippines, as well as global markets all to discuss.
In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:34), non-farm payrolls, ISM services and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. In Europe (05:30), it’s the euro area Sentix survey and wage data, the ECB consumer inflation expectations survey and the UK’s REC Report on Jobs survey. Then it’s the latest from Asia (11:50), with China CPI, Tokyo CPI and the RBA policy decision as well as Global markets all to discuss.
Friday 15th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst the FOMC signalled the likelihood of several rate cuts next year, NAB’s Gavin Friend says the Bank of England and ECB are giving nothing away, with both saying there is more to e done to bring inflation under control. One European bank even managed to slip in a rate rise ahead of Christmas – the Norges Bank pushed rates up to 4.5%, concerned about a rebound in inflation. Markets continue to respond to the dovish FOMC meeting yesterday, even with jobless claims and retail numbers both showing surprising resilience in the US economy. There’s lots more economic data today, including the December flash PMIs for Europe, the UK and US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: - how the economy is performing - how we expect prices to develop - the risks to the economic outlook - the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 14 December 2023. Additional material Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2023/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is231214~df8627de60.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp231214~9846e62f62.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds231214~cbcff0882a.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast
Will the ECB this week do the right thing? (Spoiler alert: nothing) Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In this special year-end episode, we explore the changing EU money market ecosystem. We discuss quantitative tightening, new developments in Minimum Reserve Requirements, changes to sovereign deposit remuneration and excess liquidity. With expert insight from Christophe Rieger (Head of Commerzbank's Rates and Credit Research) and Martin Nazary (Head of Short Term Products at Deutsche Finanzagentur, a major source of liquidity in EU repo markets), both speakers at the upcoming GFF Summit in Luxembourg (31 January to 1 February 2024).Together with hosts Christian Rossler and Andrew Keith Walker, we explore the significant economic impacts of these developments and look at year-end 2023, focusing on the rapidly expanding cleared repo market and the un-cleared triparty repo market.Additionally, we round off 2023 with some money market predictions for 2024 and the upcoming changes in the ECB operational framework. Lastly, we wish all our listeners a good holiday season and, if you celebrate it, a Merry Christmas.
Outgoing Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria sat down with President Christine Lagarde during the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision to look back on his five-year term, marked by challenges such as the pandemic and reflects on the most difficult decision he had to take. He also reflects on the decisions taken to overcome these challenges, and what the future holds for European banking supervision. Recorded on 1 December 2023 and published on 9 December 2023. Additional material: President Christine Lagarde’s welcome address at the fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp231130~48f5947179.en.html ECB Forum on Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20231130_5th_ECB_Forum_Banking_supervision.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu
How are financial markets reacting to higher rates, a sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions? Should we worry about property markets? Our host Stefania Secola puts these questions to financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 2 December 2023 and recorded on 27 November 2023. In this episode: 01:08 – Financial markets’ optimism is put to the test How are financial markets reacting to the new environment of high interest rates, a sluggish economy and rising geopolitical tensions? 06:00 – The conundrum of banks’ increasing profits and stagnant valuations Banks’ profits are at multi-year highs, yet their valuations haven’t changed much. What factors explain this? 10:31 – Real estate markets are a source of concern Residential and commercial property markets are feeling the impact of higher interest rates. What are the implications for banks and financial stability? 16:06 – The yin and the yang of financial stability As the credit cycle turns, and with several vulnerabilities unravelling, can resilience compensate? 18:22 – Conclusion Additional material: Financial Stability Review, November 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html FSR Box 5 on Euro area bank fundamentals, valuations and cost of equity https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc27 Special feature B on Real estate markets in an environment of high financing costs https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc40 The ECB Podcast: Financial stability and bank runs, June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230607_episode60.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu
Amid growing hopes that the US economy will land softly in 2024, financial markets are pricing looser monetary sooner than expected. John Bradley, Head of Foreign Exchange, and Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, discuss the prospects for the main developed market currencies in this environment. On this Talking Heads podcast, John highlights the likelihood of the US dollar weakening, especially against the Japanese yen, as markets anticipate changes in interest rate differentials. He notes that there could be a race between the US Federal Reserve and the ECB as inflation falls back to the central bank's target faster in the eurozone than in the US, clearing the way for eurozone rate cuts first.
Michael, Phil and Ben are back in the studio with a very special guest as they build up to the return of Test cricket!The legendary Sir Geoffrey Boycott joins the guys to discuss his new book, Being Geoffrey Boycott, which details his 18-year career which spanned 108 Tests for England.We get his take on the current England setup and the impact of 'Bazball'. Geoffrey also explains why Joe Root stands alone as the best batsman in World Cricket, and he has a message for the ECB regarding their high performance review.Plus, The Telegraph's Charlie Morgan joins the show after facing a machine replication of the South African pace attack. He fills us in on what it's really like to face Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje and Marco Jansen.Telegraph subscribers can enjoy an exclusive 20% discount on Being Geoffrey Boycott by visiting the Telegraph Extra website (telegraph.co.uk/extra).Check out the video of Charlie vs the South African pace attack here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/08/16/what-really-like-face-south-africa-pace-attack/ See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
While the ECB followed headline inflation with raised policy rates yet again last week, the Fed meeting this week may be more focused on core inflation and a hiking pause.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Global Chief Economist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the debate around oil price effects on inflation and growth, and what it means for central banks. It's Monday, September 18th at 10 a.m. in New York. Last week, the European Central Bank raised its policy rate again. We had expected them to leave rates unchanged, but President Lagarde reiterated that inflation is too high and that the Governing Council is committed to returning inflation to target. She specifically referenced oil among rising commodity prices that pose an upside risk to inflation. From the summer lows of around $70 per barrel, the price of Brent oil has risen to over $93 a barrel. How much should oil prices figure in to the macro debate? In previous research our economics team has tried to quantify the pass through of oil prices to inflation and different economies. Our takeaway is that for developed market economies, the pass through from oil prices to even headline inflation tends to be modest on average. In the quarter, following a 10% increase in oil prices, headline inflation rises about 20 basis points on average. For the euro area in particular, we have estimated that an increase like we have seen of $20 a barrel should result in about a 50 basis point increase in headline inflation. For core inflation the pass through tends to be less, about 35 basis points. Especially given the starting point though, such a rise is not negligible, but the effect should fade over time. Either the price of oil will retreat or over the next year the base effects will fall out. But energy prices can also affect spending. Recent research from the Fed estimates the effects of oil prices on consumption and GDP across countries. They estimate that a 10% increase in oil prices depresses consumption spending in the euro area by about 23 basis points. What's the mechanism through which oil price shocks affect consumption? Consumer demand for energy tends to be somewhat inelastic. That is, it's harder to substitute away from buying energy than other categories of spending. So back to the ECB, we had not expected them to hike rates, but we did think it was a close call. Core inflation had started to come down, and when it became clear that core services inflation that peaked and was drifting lower against a backdrop of signs pointing to a weaker euro area economy, we revised our call to no hike. So from our perspective, the ECB has increased the risk of hiking perhaps too much based on headline inflation. The ECB statement last week noted that inflation "is still expected to remain high for too long", but because it seems that they are now done hiking, the debate is going to turn to the duration of this so-called "higher for longer" with the policy rate. With the effects of inflation passing over time, but the drag of GDP showing up over the next few quarters, we get more comfortable expecting rate cuts there as early as June next year. The Fed is meeting this week and the last US CPI print showed headline inflation boosted by higher gasoline prices. Sound familiar? Well, our colleagues in the U.S. team have stressed that the Fed will likely look through the non core inflation. And, as in Europe, the increases in oil prices should lower purchasing power for consumers in the near term, further limiting economic activity and that is part of the objective of higher policy rates right now. With the Fed's focus on core rather than headline inflation, the last data print gives more reason to think the Fed is done hiking. Taking the last CPI print and combining it with last week's data from the Producer Price Index, you can infer a monthly rate of 0.14% for core PCE inflation in August. When the Federal Open Market Committee revisits its June economic projections, they will essentially be forced to revise down their forecasts for core inflation for this year. Thanks for listening and if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
We review and critically discuss the decisions taken by the ECB after the suprisingly benign November inflation numbers.
IN THIS EPISODE I DISCUSS THESE TOPICS: PART 1 AND 2 1. THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-warns-hit-top-european-banks-if-funds-run-into-trouble-2023-05-30/ https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230601_1~618cf8f1af.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230601~2740cf2320.en.html 2. THE MAJESTIC 12 https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_mj12_21.htm#Text%20of%20the%20Truman%20letter LISTEN, SUBSCRIBE AND SHARE WITH EVERY PATRIOT REBEL YOU KNOW